No end to GSOMIA row

Nothing can be resolved unless Japan changes

The Moon Jaein administration's decision, Friday, to suspend "conditionally" the termination of a military intelligence-sharing pact with Japan has brought a sigh of relief from Washington and Tokyo.

We view this as a de facto renewal of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) although some South Korean officials insisted Seoul can abandon the pact at any time if the ensuing negotiations with Japan over its export curbs on Korea fall through.

This could be Seoul's "humiliating" defeat in a diplomatic battle with Tokyo ― as well as Washington ― over the GSOMIA as some critics describe. However, it was rather a strategic decision by Moon to maintain the status quo in the face of grave challenges at home and abroad.

Most of all, the general election scheduled for next April could have been a major factor for Moon in reversing his earlier decision to kill the GSOMIA. It has become evident that the GSOMIA is not mere a bilateral military agreement between South Korea and Japan, but a vital part of the U.S. regional security strategy. Moon and his aides simply could not be sure of what consequences they would face if they went ahead with the previous decision. Because the issue had become an acute diplomatic problem between Seoul and Washington, as seen from a series of surprise visits to Seoul by senior U.S. officials in the lead-up to the expiration date, there were worries that South Korea's abandonment of the GSOMIA could create a "perfect storm" for the country's alliance with the U.S., which is already being challenged on multiple fronts.

It is not hard to imagine how such a disaster, if realized, would affect voter sentiment ahead of the crucial election. Moon and his liberal party would have considered the possible catastrophic results the GSOMIA termination could bring about to them. In a way, it was a realistic choice to suspend the pact, while leaving the possibility open that it can end it unless Japan scraps its export curbs. That means, if the party wins the election, there could be a different story.

The possible resumption of nuclear disarmament talks between North Korea and the U.S. may also have affected the South's decision. The Moon administration needs to collaborate with the U.S. to help it produce tangible results in talks with the North.

Cheong Wa Dae said behind the decision was Japan's ｅxpression of willingness to reconsider its export restrictions on Seoul. It also decided to suspend all legal procedures over the Japanese export curbs at the World Trade Organization. In addition, South Korean and Japanese officials confirmed that the two countries were discussing the possibility of a meeting between their leaders as early as next month.

On the surface, Seoul has stepped back in the row with Japan to pave the way for a compromise. However, there are few signs that the Shinzo Abe administration has changed its adamant position on South Korea. According to Japanese media reports, officials there denied Korea's claims that Japan was willing to scrap export restrictions on its neighbor. Rather, some reports described Seoul's decision as Japan's "diplomatic victory."

The U.S. State Department said Seoul's decision sent a positive message that "like-minded allies" can work through bilateral disputes, encouraging them to continue sincere discussions. But this is only willful ignorance of reality.