Prepare for both provocation and dialogue
On Wednesday, North Korea all but nullified the 2018 military agreement with the South as part of its series of phased threats. After suddenly demolishing the inter-Korean liaison office in Gaeseong, Tuesday, the (North) Korean People's Army said that it would dispatch troops to the Mount Geumgang and Gaeseong areas, and reinstall sentry posts and restart military exercises at border areas.
With that, and in just over two days, any progress made by President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in their 2018 summits has been rendered null and void.
Tension is expected to rise, but the North should consider the wisdom of placing the two Koreas into an exhausting pattern of attrition that prevents co-prosperity and further moves toward peace. For its part, the South should respond with readiness to prevent the North from making any miscalculations.
It will be difficult as the North seems intent on embarrassing the South and its leadership. But since the demolition, the South has rightly shifted to a strong stance against the North. The defense ministry warned that the North will “pay a price” if it takes military action. Cheong Wa Dae said Wednesday it will not tolerate the North's “unreasonable words and actions” any more, in response to the invective-filled comments toward President Moon by Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean leader's sister.
In words ill-fit for such a top state official, Kim said that Moon's comments on the 20th anniversary of the June 15 joint declaration were “shameless sophistry.”
It would be hard to dispute that the North's intention is to pressure the South into persuading the United States to ease international sanctions. Reports indicate that the North's economic woes are deepening without a let-up in the international sanctions or progress on inter-Korean exchanges. Pundits are also watching to see whether the North is attempting to buttress the status of Kim Yo-jong, the first vice department director of the Workers' Party Central Committee. She has been repeatedly speaking on behalf of Kim Jong-un, who has not been seen lately.
While North Korea has not yet registered a major blip on the U.S. radar, the State Department commented that Pyongyang should refrain from “further counterproductive actions.” Beijing also issued an indirect warning to the North not to escalate tension on the Korean Peninsula.
Thus, South Korea should work with both China and the United States, the former to influence the North and the latter to resume dialogue for both peace, prosperity and denuclearization. The “absence” of the North Korean leader himself in the barrage of threatening actions and verbal salvos leaves hope for possible dialogue amid the escalation.
The abrupt resignation of the South Korean Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul at this point over the deterioration of inter-Korean ties will not help the situation. As difficult as it is, the government should keep its stern posture of readiness to respond to possible provocations, but also possible pivots toward peace as it helps the North Korean
leadership realize that its playbook of brinkmanship will only deepen its isolation and decline.