Can leadership change help mend Seoul-Tokyo ties?
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has tendered his resignation for health reasons. Japan is set to choose its new prime minister soon in mid-September. Now the question is whether the looming replacement of the Japanese leadership will bring about any changes in soured relations between Seoul and Tokyo. We hope the neighbors will mend ties to end their enmity and forge a new partnership.
Abe has suffered from ulcerative colitis since he was a teenager. The health problem recently resurfaced to the extent he can no longer carry out the job. Abe first took office in September 2006 for a one-year stint but left for health reasons, retaking power in December 2012.
He has become the longest-serving prime minister of Japan with more than eight and a half years in office. Abe has been facing setbacks amid a declining support rating since he failed to cope with the coronavirus pandemic coupled with a lingering economic slowdown.
With his nationalistic character, Abe has pushed many controversial policies, including the expansion of Japan's military role in the region and revision of the postwar pacifist constitution to make Japan a normal country that can wage a war with others. He angered Koreans, Chinese and other Asians with his visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which enshrines war criminals from World War II among others.
Relations between Seoul and Tokyo have reached their lowest because Japan introduced trade restrictions against Korean firms last year in apparent retaliation over the Korean Supreme Court's ruling ordering Japanese firms to compensate for surviving South Korean victims of wartime forced labor. Abe has been under criticism here for using the ruling and fostering anti-Korean sentiment among Japanese voters for political gains.
Despite relentless efforts by Seoul to resolve the trade dispute through dialogue, the Abe administration has shown no signs of compromise. As a result, the nations have been on a collision course. South Korea recently activated the setup of a dispute settlement panel with the World Trade Organization (WTO) to deal with Japan's unfair and unilateral trade measures. The prospect for settlement of the conflict is dim with both sides reluctant to budge from their hardline stance.
Now all eyes are on who will succeed Abe. Potential candidates include former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga and incumbent Defense Minister Taro Kono. Economic Revitalization Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, now in charge of COVID-19 measures, and former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida are also being considered.
Some experts point out that it is still premature to expect a breakthrough in stalled Seoul-Tokyo relations in light of the conservative tendencies within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) which is not favorable to Korea. However, this does not necessarily mean the looming leadership change will be of no help for bilateral ties.
After a new prime minister is picked, Seoul and Tokyo need to cooperate to improve relations for mutual benefit. Following Abe's offer to resign, Cheong Wa Dae said it would cooperate with a new Japanese leader and his Cabinet to move toward friendly and cooperative relations. We expect the leadership shift will serve as an occasion to mend bilateral ties.